In my last discussion, I indicated a high level of confidence that the weather pattern was headed toward a setup that would deliver more consistent cold and snow to resorts in the East, including those in the mid Atlantic that have enjoyed precious little winter weather thus far this season. In spite of President’s Weekend ending up on a rainy note, I remain convinced that some fantastic skiing and riding conditions are on the way. President’s Day will be damp in the East, with very cold air moving through the eastern Great Lakes, which will serve to firm up surfaces in that region...the same process will take place further east on Monday night and Tuesday. The West has enjoyed a rather tranquil spell of weather of late, but snows will return later this week, as a significant series of trough barrels ashore. The action will shift into the East next week, and perhaps in a very dramatic fashion.

The early week jet stream pattern will feature a deep trough over the middle of the country. From that position, the weekend surface storm had no choice but to take a track west of the mountains...in fact, it went up through western Michigan. Early last week, I had thought that it would hug the coast and bring snow to interior sections of the Northeast this weekend, and I was dead wrong. Such a westerly track helped to spread warm air northward all the way to Quebec, where resorts will see a mix of precip types all the way to Quebec City. The trough will take up residence over the eastern U.S. for much of this week, which means temperatures will be below normal. Ordinarily, that would be grounds for rejoicing, but arctic air in the wake of a rain event means firm snow, and that is the surface that will dominate much of this week. Groomers will be very busy this week, and many resorts will be making tons of snow, although they generally don’t like to have to do that once we get so deep into the season...it’s that old ROI, or “return on investment” that makes them reluctant to make snow round the clock at this time of year. Many resorts will do just that, however, and surfaces will be softening up as the week progresses. This would be a good time to consider a mid season tune-up for your edges, and it would also help if you concentrate on the runs that pick up the most sunshine, particularly early in the day.

Later this week, a couple of weak Alberta Clippers will move through the Northeast, embedded in the northwesterly flow associated with the trough. They will produce a little light snow, which will also help with the resurfacing effort. By the weekend, there are some signs that a low pressure area will move into the Northeast, which would produce significant snow away from the coast...I’d give this a 1 in 3 shot at this point. By the time we get to the week of the 25th, the stage should be set for a week full of action. With a trough in the East, and upper level energy coming east from the trough that will dive into the West next weekend, we could be seeing the first big time coastal snow storm of the season by the 27th or so. Whether that storm develops or not, the trough over the East will deepen as the week moves along, and it will be colder than normal from Quebec to the Carolinas. Alberta Clippers will run through the trough on a regular basis, there will be several outbreaks of lake effect snow, and in general, snow cover through the Ohio Valley, mid Atlantic, and Northeast will increase.

The first week in March will likely bring a relaxation in the cold regime, but it will be temporary, as the atmosphere will merely be getting ready for another cold shot in the East. We are now entering a pattern where cold spells will last longer than warm spells, with the reverse having been the case since late December. March will belong to winter in the eastern U.S., and that includes, as I mentioned above, the mid Atlantic. The La Nina has started to weaken, and typically, that spells snow and cold in March (and often into April). That’s where this weather pattern is headed, and I would be very surprised if at least one, and more likely 2 or 3 major coastal storms don’t impact the region in the next 6 weeks or so. The best skiing and riding of this season are on their way to many spots in the East; with a resumption of packed powder and powder to those resorts that have been lucky enough to enjoy the snow this season...get ready.